Astral Codex Ten Posts in Chronological Order
(Minus sub-only posts.) This is mostly a for-me thing since Substack kind of fights you on displaying years of archived posts but there's no reason not to drop this somewhere public.
Current through 6/3/24
2020
📝 8/30 You're Probably Wondering Why I've Called You Here Today
2021
📝 1/21 Still Alive
📝 1/22 Logistics
🧵 1/24 Open Thread 157
💊 1/25 Know Your Amphetamines
🧠 1/27 Ontology Of Psychiatric Conditions: Taxometrics
🏛️ 1/28 Contra Weyl On Technocracy
🏛️ 1/29 Weyl Contra Me On Technocracy
🧵 1/31 Open Thread 158
📈 2/1 Metaculus Monday
🐉 2/2 Riddle Of The Sphinx II: Sustained Release Riddlin'
🧠 2/3 Ontology Of Psychiatric Conditions: Dynamical Systems
🏆 2/4 Book Review Contest Final Rules
💊 2/5 WebMD, And The Tragedy Of Legible Expertise
🏛️ 2/6 Journalism and Legible Expertise
🧵 2/7 Open Thread 159
📈 2/8 Metaculus Monday 2/8/21
📚 2/9 Book Review: Why We're Polarized
🧠 2/10 Ontology Of Psychiatric Conditions: Tradeoffs And Failures
🐉 2/11 List Of Fictional Cryptocurrencies Banned By The SEC
🧠 2/12 The Precision Of Sensory Evidence
📝 2/13 Statement on New York Times Article
😷 2/15 Coronavirus: Links, Discussion, Open Thread
😷 2/16 COVID/Vitamin D: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
📚 2/17 Book Review: The Cult Of Smart
💬 2/18 Highlights From The Comments On Cult Of Smart
🏛️ 2/19 Ezra Klein On Vetocracy
🧵 2/21 Open Thread 160
🧠 2/21 A Look Down Track B
📈 2/23 Mantic Monday: Judging April COVID Predictions
📚 2/24 Book Review: Fussell On Class
🏛️ 2/25 A Modest Proposal For Republicans: Use The Word "Class"
📚 2/26 Bay Area Plant-Based Meat Reviews
🧵 2/28 Open Thread 161
📈 3/1 Mantic Monday: Scoring Rule Controversy
💊 3/2 Shilling For Big Mitochondria
🔗 3/3 Links For March
💬 3/4 Highlights From The Comments On March Links
💬 3/5 Highlights From The Comments On Class
🧵 3/7 Open Thread 162
🏛️ 3/8 The Consequences Of Radical Reform
🏛️ 3/10 Trapped Priors As A Basic Problem Of Rationality
🏛️ 3/12 Richard Nixon Vs. Cool
🧵 3/14 Open Thread 163
📈 3/15 Mantic Monday: Mantic Matt Y
🧠 3/16 Sleep Is The Mate Of Death
📚 3/18 Book Review: The New Sultan
🧵 3/21 Open Thread 164
📝 3/22 Adding My Data Point To The Discussion Of Substack Advances
📚 3/23 Book Review: Antifragile
🏛️ 3/25 More Antifragile, Diversity Libertarianism, And Corporate Censorship
🧠 3/25 Toward A Bayesian Theory Of Willpower
🧵 3/28 Open Thread 165
💊 3/30 Oh, The Places You'll Go When Trying To Figure Out The Right Dose Of Escitalopram
🧠 4/1 Ambidexterity And Cognitive Closure
🧵 4/4 Open Thread 166
📈 4/5 2020 Predictions: Calibration Results
🏛️ 4/6 Two Unexpected Multiple Hypothesis Testing Problems
💊 4/7 Metis And Bodybuilders
🏆 4/8 Your Book Review: Order Without Law
🏆 4/9 Your Book Review: On The Natural Faculties
🧵 4/11 Open Thread 167
🔗 4/12 Links For April
🧠 4/14 [LINK] Unifying Predictive Coding With Backpropagation
🗺️ 4/14 Prospectus On Próspera
🏆 4/15 Your Book Review: Progress And Poverty
🧵 4/18 Open Thread 168
📈 4/19 Mantic Monday: Grading My Trump Predictions
🏛️ 4/20 No, Really, Why Are So Many Christians In Colombia Converting To Orthodox Judaism?
📚 4/21 Book Review: Global Economic History
🏆 4/22 Your Book Review: Are We Smart Enough To Know How Smart Animals Are?
🏆 4/23 Your Book Review: Why Buddhism Is True
🧵 4/25 Open Thread 169
📈 4/26 Mantic Monday: Predictions For 2021
😷 4/27 Versus Written On The Occasion Of Getting The COVID Vaccine
💊 4/28 Nootropics Survey 2020 Results
🏆 4/29 Your Book Review: Double Fold
🏆 4/30 Your Book Review: The Wizard And The Prophet
🧵 5/2 Open Thread 170
🏛️ 5/3 If You Can Be Bad, You Can Also Be Good
📚 5/4 Book Review: A Brief History Of Neoliberalism
🏛️ 5/5 Why Is It Hard To Acknowledge Preferences?
🏆 5/6 Your Book Review: Through The Eye Of A Needle
🏆 5/7 Your Book Review: The Years Of Lyndon Johnson
🧵 5/9 Open Thread 171
🏛️ 5/10 The Rise And Fall Of Online Culture Wars
🏛️ 5/11 Theses On The Current Moment
💊 5/12 Welcome To The Terrible World Of Prescription-Only Apps
💬 5/13 Highlights From The Comments On CBT-i Apps
🏆 5/14 Your Book Review: Addiction By Design
🧵 5/16 Open Thread 172
💬 5/18 Highlights From The Comments On Culture Wars
🔗 5/20 Links For May
🏆 5/21 Your Book Review: The Accidental Superpower
🧵 5/23 Open Thread 173
📚 5/24 Book Review: Arabian Nights
🧠 5/25 Peer Review Request: Depression
😷 5/27 COVID Suicides: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
🏆 5/28 Your Book Review: Humankind
🧵 5/30 Open Thread 174
💊 5/31 What Do Treatments For Accelerated Aging Tell Us About Normal Aging?
🏛️ 6/1 Moral Costs Of Chicken Vs. Beef
🏆 6/3 Your Book Review: The Collapse Of Complex Societies
🏆 6/4 Your Book Review: Where's My Flying Car
🧵 6/6 Open Thread 175
📈 6/7 Instead Of Pledging To Change The World, Pledge To Change Prediction Markets
🏛️ 6/8 I Will Not Eat The Bugs
💊 6/9 Drug Users Use A Lot Of Drugs
🏆 6/10 Your Book Review: Down And Out In Paris And London
🏆 6/11 Your Book Review: How Children Fail
🧵 6/13 Open Thread 176
🏛️ 6/14 Contra Smith On Jewish Selective Immigration
🧠 6/15 On Cerabralab On Nutt/Carhart-Harris On Serotonin
🏆 6/17 Your Book Review: Plagues And Peoples
🏆 6/18 Vote In The Book Review Contest!
🧵 6/20 Open Thread 177
📈 6/21 Mantic Monday 6/21/21
🔗 6/22 Links For June
📝 6/25 ACX Reader Research Survey: Call For Submissions
🧵 6/27 Open Thread 178
📚 6/28 Book Review: How Asia Works
💊 6/30 Welcome Polygenically Screened Babies
💬 7/1 Highlights From The Comments On "How Asia Works"
🧵 7/4 Open Thread 179
🗺️ 7/5 Model City Monday
😷 7/6 Lockdown Effectiveness: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
🏆 7/9 Book Review Contest: Winners
🧵 7/11 Open Thread 180
📈 7/12 Use Prediction Markets To Fund Investigative Reporting
📝 7/13 Reader Survey Final Check-In
📚 7/14 Book Review: Crazy Like Us
📝 7/16 Please Take The Reader Survey [Update: Now It Is Closed And You Can Stop Taking It]
🧵 7/18 Open Thread 181
📝 7/19 Peer Review Request: Ketamine
💬 7/20 Highlights From The Comments On "Crazy Like Us"
📝 7/21 Things I Learned Writing The Lockdown Post
🔗 7/23 Links For July
🧵 7/25 Open Thread 182
📈 7/26 Mantic Monday 7/26
🤖 7/27 Contra Acemoglu On...Oh God, We're Doing This Again, Aren't We?
🏛️ 7/28 When Does Worrying About Things Trade Off Against Worrying About Other Things?
🤖 7/29 Updated Look At Long-Term AI Risks
🧵 8/1 Open Thread 183
🗺️ 8/2 Model City Monday 8/2/21
🧠 8/3 What Should We Make Of Sasha Chapin's Claim That Taking LSD Restored His Sense Of Smell After COVID?
🏛️ 8/4 Adumbrations Of Aducanumab
💬 8/5 Highlights From The Comments On Acemoglu And AI
🏛️ 8/6 Details Of The Infant Fish Oil Story
🏛️ 8/8 Contra Drum On The Fish Oil Story
🧵 8/8 Open Thread 184
📝 8/9 Eight Hundred Slightly Poisoned Word Games
👋 8/10 (Outdoor, Careful) Meetups Everywhere 2021 - Seeking Organizers
📰 8/11 Classifieds Thread 8/2021
🏛️ 8/12 Contra Hanania On Partisanship
🧠 8/13 Blindness, Schizophrenia, and Autism
🧵 8/15 Open Thread 185
🏛️ 8/17 Kids Can Recover From Missing Even Quite A Lot Of School
🔗 8/18 Links For August
💬 8/20 Highlights From The Comments On Aducanumab
🧵 8/22 Open Thread 186
👋 8/23 Meetups Everywhere 2021: Times And Places
🏛️ 8/24 Carbon Costs Quantified
🏛️ 8/25 If You're So Smart, Why Aren't You Governer Of California?
💬 8/26 Highlights From The Comments On Missing School
👋 8/27 Berkeley Meetup This Saturday
🧵 8/29 Open Thread 187
🏛️ 8/30 On Hreha On Behavioral Economics
😷 9/1 Long COVID: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
👋 9/3 Boston Meetup This Sunday
🧵 9/4 Open Thread 188
👋 9/5 New York Meetup This Monday
🏛️ 9/6 Too Good To Check: A Play In Three Acts
📝 9/8 The Unbearable Semiheaviness Of Being
👋 9/10 Washington DC Meetup This Saturday
🧵 9/12 Open Thread 189
📚 9/13 Book Review: Modi - A Political Biography
📚 9/17 Book Review: The Revolt Of The Public
👋 9/17 Lisbon Meetup This Saturday
🧵 9/18 Open Thread 190
🔗 9/20 Links For September
🏛️ 9/23 Whither Tartaria?
🧵 9/24 Open Thread 191 + Madrid/Zurich Meetups This Weekend
📚 9/29 Book Review: The Scout Mindset
🧵 9/30 Open Thread 192 + Vienna/Prague Meetups This Weekend
💬 10/4 Highlights From The Comments On Modern Architecture
📰 10/6 Classifieds Thread 10/2021
🧵 10/7 Open Thread 193 + Berlin/Paris Meetups This Weekend
🏛️ 10/11 Please Don't Give Up On Having Kids Because Of Climate Change
💬 10/13 Highlights From The Comments On Kids And Climate Change
🔗 10/14 Links For October
🧵 10/14 Open Thread 194 + London/Oxford Meetups This Weekend
💊 10/19 Chilling Effects
🧵 10/22 Open Thread 195 + Cambridge/Edinburgh Meetups This Weekend
🏛️ 10/25 Epistemic Minor Leagues
🏛️ 10/28 Jhanas and the Dark Room Problem
🧵 10/31 Open Thread 196
📈 11/1 Mantic Monday 11/1/21
💊 11/3 Non-Cognitive Skills For Educational Attainment Suggest Benefits Of Mental Illness Genes
📚 11/4 Dictator Book Club: Orban
🧵 11/7 Open Thread 197
🗺️ 11/8 Model City Monday 11/8/21
🏛️ 11/9 Secrets Of The Great Families
💬 11/10 Highlights From The Comments On Orban
🏆 11/11 Apply For An ACX Grant
🧵 11/14 Open Thread 198
📈 11/15 Mantic Monday 11/15
😷 11/16 Ivermectin: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
💬 11/17 Highlights From The Comments On Great Families
🧵 11/21 Open Thread 199
😷 11/22 When Will The FDA Approve Paxlovid
💬 11/23 Highlights From The Comments On The FDA And Paxlovid
💬 11/23 Highlights From The Comments On Ivermectin
💊 11/24 Pascalian Medicine
🔗 11/25 Links For November
🧵 11/28 Open Thread 200
😷 11/29 MM: Omicron Variant
📚 12/1 Book Review: Lifespan
🧵 12/5 Open Thread 201
🗺️ 12/6 Model City Monday 12/6/21
💊 12/7 Diseasonality
🏆 12/8 Does Georgism Work? Part 1: Is Land Really A Big Deal?
🏆 12/9 Does Georgism Work? Part 2: Can Landlords Pass Land Value Tax on to Tenants?
🏆 12/10 Does Georgism Work, Part 3: Can Unimproved Land Value be Accurately Assessed Separately From Buildings?
🧵 12/12 Open Thread 202
💊 12/14 Ancient Plagues
🏛️ 12/16 The Phrase "No Evidence" Is A Red Flag For Bad Science Communication
🧵 12/19 Open Thread 203
📈 12/20 Mantic Monday: Let Me Google That For You
😷 12/21 The FDA Has Punted Decisions About Luvox Prescription To The Deepest Recesses Of The Human Soul
😷 12/22 Addendum To Luvox Post
🏛️ 12/22 Addendum To "No Evidence" Post
💬 12/23 Highlights From The Comments On Diseasonality
🧵 12/26 Open Thread 204
📈 12/27 Mantic Monday: Dogs In Wizard Hats
🏆 12/28 ACX Grants Results
🔗 12/30 Links For December
2022
🧵 1/2 Open Thread 205
🏛️ 1/3 Lewis Carroll Invented Retroactive Public Goods Funding In 1894
📚 1/4 Movie Review: Don't Look Up
💬 1/6 Highlights From The Comments On "Don't Look Up"
🧵 1/10 Open Thread 206
📝 1/12 There's A Time For Everyone
🧵 1/16 Open Thread 207
🤖 1/18 Practically-A-Book Review: Yudkowsky Contra Ngo On Agents
📚 1/19 Book Review: Which Country Has The World's Best Health Care?
🏆 1/21 Resubmit And Summarize Your Proposals For Grants ++
🧵 1/24 Open Thread 208
📈 1/24 Grading My 2021 Predictions
🏛️ 1/25 Bounded Distrust
💊 1/26 Against That Poverty And Infant EEGs Study
💬 1/26 Highlights From The Comments On Health Care Systems
📰 1/27 Classifieds Thread 1/2022
🧵 1/30 Open Thread 209
📈 1/31 Predictions For 2022
🧠 2/1 Motivated Reasoning As Mis-applied Reinforcement Learning
📝 2/2 Why Do I Suck?
🏆 2/3 ACX Grants ++: The First Half
🏆 2/4 Book Review Contest Rules 2022
🧵 2/6 Open Thread 210
📈 2/7 The Passage Of Polymarket
📝 2/8 Two Small Corretions And Updates
🏛️ 2/8 Heuristics That Almost Always Work
📝 2/9 So You Want To Run A Microgrants Program
🏆 2/10 ACX Grants ++: The Second Half
💬 2/11 Highlights From The Comments On Motivated Reasoning And Reinforcement Learning
🧵 2/13 Open Thread 211
📈 2/14 Mantic Monday: Ukraine Cube Manifold
📚 2/16 Book Review: Sadly,Porn
🐉 2/17 The Gods Only Have Power Because We Believe In Them
👋 2/18 Austin Meetup Next Sunday
🧵 2/20 Open Thread 212
📈 2/21 Play Money And Reputation Systems
🔗 2/22 Links For February
🤖 2/23 Biological Anchors: A Trick That Might Or Might Not Work
👋 2/25 Austin Meetup Correction
🧵 2/28 Open Thread 113
📈 2/28 Ukraine Warcasting
🧠 3/1 Microaddictions
🏛️ 3/3 What Are We Arguing About When We Argue About Rationality?
🧵 3/6 Open Thread 214
🔗 3/7 Ukraine Thoughts And Links
💊 3/8 Zounds! It's Zulresso and Zuranolone!
🏛️ 3/9 Advice For Unwoke Academic?
💊 3/10 Progesterone Megadoses Might Be A Cheap Zulresso Substitute
🧵 3/13 Open Thread 215
📈 3/14 Mantic Monday 3/14/22
🏛️ 3/15 Justice Creep
💬 3/16 Highlights From the Comments On Zulresso
🧵 3/20 Open Thread 216
📈 3/21 Mantic Monday 3/21/22
🏛️ 3/22 Contra Hoel On Aristocratic Tutoring
🧠 3/23 Men Will LIterally Have Completely Different Mental Processes Instead Of Going To Therapy
💬 3/24 Highlights From The Comments On Justice Creep
🧵 3/27 Open Thread 217
📈 3/28 Information Markets, Decision Markets, Attention Markets, Action Markets
🏛️ 3/29 Who Gets Self-Determination?
🐉 3/30 Idol Words
🏛️ 3/31 The Low-Hanging Fruit Argument: Models And Predictions
🧵 4/3 Open Thread 218
🤖 4/4 Yudkowsky Contra Christiano On AI Takeoff Speeds
💬 4/5 Highlights From The Comments On Self-Determination
📚 4/6 Dictator Book Club: Xi Jinping
👋 4/10 Spring Meetups In Seventy Cities
🧵 4/10 Open Thread 219
🤖 4/11 Deceptively Aligned Mesa-Optimizers: It's Not Funny If I Have To Explain It
💊 4/12 Obscure Pregnancy Interventions: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
🐉 4/13 Biography of Jason Shea, 44th US President
🔗 4/14 Links For April
👋 4/15 Irvine Meetup This Monday
🧵 4/17 Open Thread 220
📈 4/18 Mantic Monday 4/18/22
💬 4/19 Highlights From The Comments On "Sadly, Porn"
💊 4/21 Contra Hoffman On Vitamin D Dosing
📝 4/22 Initial Conditions
🧵 4/24 Open Thread 221
📚 4/26 Book Review: A Clinical Introduction To Lacanian Psychoanalysis
💬 4/28 Highlights From The Comments On Xi Jinping
🧵 4/30 Open Thread 222
🐉 5/3 Every Bay Area House Party
📝 5/4 Why Do People Prefer My Old Blog's Layout To Substack's?
👋 5/6 Berkeley Meetup This Saturday
🧵 5/8 Open Thread 223
📈 5/9 Mantic Monday 5/9/22
📚 5/10 Book Review: The Gervais Principle
🏆 5/13 Your Book Review: Consciousness And The Brain
🧵 5/14 Open Thread 224
💊 5/16 Contra Dynomight On Sexy In-Laws
💊 5/17 Link: Troof On Nootropics
💊 5/18 Lavender's Game: Silexan For Anxiety
🏆 5/20 Your Book Review: Making Nature
🧵 5/22 Open Thread 225
🤖 5/23 Willpower, Human and Machine
🏛️ 5/24 California Gubernatorial Candidates From Z to Z
🧠 5/25 In Partial, Grudging Defense Of The Hearing Voices Movement
🏆 5/27 Your Book Review: The Anti-Politics Machine
🧵 5/30 Open Thead 226
🤖 5/30 A Guide To Asking Robots To Design Stained Glass Windows
💊 5/31 Birth Order Effects: Nature vs. Nurture
📰 6/1 Classifieds Thread 6/2022
🏆 6/3 Your Book Review: The Castrato
🧵 6/5 Open Thread 227
🐉 6/6 It's Bad On Purpose To Make You Click
🤖 6/6 My Bet: AI Size Solves Flubs
🏛️ 6/7 Which Party Has Gotten More Extreme Faster?
🏛️ 6/8 Against "There Are Two X-Wing Parties"
🤖 6/9 Somewhat Contra Marcus On AI Scaling
🏆 6/10 Your Book Review: The Dawn of Everything
🧵 6/12 Open Thread 228
📈 6/13 Mantic Monday 6/13/22
🧠 6/15 Peer Review: Nightmares
🏆 6/17 Your Book Review: The Future Of Fusion Energy
🧵 6/19 Open Thread 229
📚 6/22 Book Review: San Fransicko
🏆 6/24 Your Book Review: Public Choice Theory And The Illusion Of Grand Strategy
🧵 6/26 Open Thread 230
🗺️ 6/27 Model City Monday 6/27/22
🏛️ 6/28 What Caused The 2020 Homicide Spike?
💬 6/29 Highlights From The Comments On San Fransicko
🔗 6/30 Links For June
🏆 7/1 Your Book Review: The Internationalists
🧵 7/3 Open Thread 231
🧠 7/5 Study: Ritalin Works, But School Isn't Worth Paying Attention To
🏛️ 7/6 Nobody Knows How Well Homework Works
💬 7/7 Highlights From The Comments On The 2020 Homicide Spike
🏆 7/8 Your Book Review: The Outlier
🧵 7/10 Open Thread 232
📈 7/11 Mantic Monday 7/11/22
📚 7/12 Book Review: The Man From The Future
📈 7/15 Impact Markets: The Annoying Details
🏆 7/15 Your Book Review: The Righteous Mind
🧵 7/17 Open Thread 233
📝 7/19 Criticism Of Criticism Of Criticism
🏆 7/22 Your Book Review: The Society Of The Spectacle
🧵 7/25 Open Thread 234
🤖 7/26 ELK And The Problem Of Truthful AI
🏛️ 7/26 Forer Statements As Updates And Affirmations
💬 7/27 Highlights From The Comments On Criticism Of Criticism Of Criticism
🔗 7/28 Links For July
🏆 7/29 Your Book Review: Viral
🧵 7/31 Open Thread 235
🗺️ 8/1 Model City Monday 8/1/22
🏛️ 8/3 Slightly Against Underpopulation Worries
🏛️ 8/4 Absurdity Bias, Neom Edition
🏆 8/5 Your Book Review: Exhaustion
🧵 8/7 Open Thread 236
🤖 8/8 Why Not Slow AI Progress?
🏛️ 8/9 A Cyclic Theory Of Subcultures
🏛️ 8/10 Will Nonbelievers Believe Anything?
🏆 8/12 Your Book Review: God Emperor Of Dune
🧵 8/14 Open Thread 237
📈 8/15 Mantic Monday 8/15/22
👋 8/16 Meetups Everywhere 2022 - Call For Organizers
🧠 8/17 Skills Plateau Because Of Decay And Interference
💬 8/18 Highlights From The Comments On Subcultures
🏆 8/19 Your Book Review: 1587, A Year Of No Significance
🧵 8/21 Open Thread 238
📚 8/22 Book Review: What We Owe The Future
🏛️ 8/23 Effective Altruism As A Tower Of Assumptions
💬 8/24 Highlights From The Comments On The Repugnant Conclusion And WWOTF
👋 8/25 Meetups Everywhere 2022: Times & Places
🏆 8/26 Your Book Review: Kora In Hell
🧵 8/28 Open Thread 239
🏛️ 8/30 Billionaires, Surplus, And Replaceability
🐉 9/1 The Prophet And Caesar's Wife
🏆 9/2 Book Review Contest 2022 Winners
🧵 9/4 Open Thread 240
🔗 9/6 Links For September 2022
📰 9/7 Classifieds Thread 9/22
🧵 9/11 Open Thread 241
🤖 9/12 I Won My Three Year AI Progress Bet In Three Months
🧠 9/13 Unpredictable Reward, Predictable Happiness
👋 9/16 Bay Area Meetups This Weekend
🧵 9/18 Open Thread 242
🤖 9/19 Janus' GPT Wrangling
🏛️ 9/20 Why Is The Central Valley So Bad?
💬 9/21 Highlights From The Comments On Billionaire Replaceability
🧵 9/25 Open Thread 243
📈 9/27 From Nostradamus To Fukuyama
📝 9/28 Universe-Hopping Through Substack
💬 9/29 Highlights From The Comments On Unpredictable Reward
🧵 10/2 Open Thread 244
🤖 10/3 CHAI, Assistance Games, And Fully-Updated Deference
💊 10/4 How Trustworthy Are Supplements?
👋 10/5 LA and San Diego Meetups This Weekend
🏛️ 10/6 A Columbian Exchange
🧵 10/9 Open Thread 245
💬 10/10 Highlights From The Comments On Columbus Day
🔗 10/11 Links For October
💬 10/13 Highlights From The Comments On The Central Valley
🧵 10/16 Open Thread 246
📈 10/17 Mantic Monday 10/17/22
🐉 10/18 Another Bay Area House Party
📚 10/20 Book Review: Rhythms Of The Brain
🧵 10/23 Open Thread 247
📝 10/24 From The Mailbag
💬 10/25 Highlights From The Comments On Supplement Labeling
🧵 10/26 Open Thread 247.5
🏛️ 10/26 Nick Cammarata On Jhana
📚 10/27 Book Review: Malleus Maleficarum
🧵 10/30 Open Thread 248
💬 10/31 Highlights From The Comments On Jhanas
🧵 11/2 Open Thread 248.5
🏛️ 11/2 Moderation Is Different From Censorship
🏛️ 11/3 My California Ballot 2022
🏆 11/4 ACX Grants: Project Updates
💬 11/5 Highlights From The Comments On My California Ballot
🧵 11/6 Open Thread 249
💬 11/7 Highlights From The Comments On Brain Waves
🧵 11/9 Open Thread 249.5: Challenge Mode
🏛️ 11/9 Can People Be Honestly Wrong About Their Own Experiences?
🏛️ 11/10 Contra Resident Contrarian On Unfalsifiable Internal States
🧵 11/13 Open Thread 250
💊 11/16 The Psychopharmacology Of The FTX Crash
🧵 11/20 Open Thread 251
📈 11/20 Mantic Monday: Twitter Chaos Edition
📝 11/21 "Is Wine Fake?" In Asterisk Magazine
💊 11/23 Semaglutidonomics
🏛️ 11/25 If The Media Reported On Other Things Like It Does Effective Altruism
🧵 11/27 Open Thread 252
🤖 11/28 Can This AI Save Teenage Spy Alex Rider From A Terrible Fate?
💬 11/29 Highlights From The Comments On Semaglutide
📚 11/30 Book Review: First Sixth Of Bobos In Paradise
🧵 12/4 Open Thread 253
🧠 12/7 Know Your GABA-A Receptor Subunits
🏛️ 12/8 Why I'm Less Than Infinitely Hostile To Cryptocurrency
💬 12/9 Highlights From The Comments On Bobos In Paradise
🧵 12/11 Open Thread 254
🤖 12/12 Perhaps It Is A Bad Thing That The World's Leading AI Companies Cannot Control Their AIs
🏆 12/16 2023 Prediction Contest
🧵 12/19 Open Thread 255
📈 12/19 Prediction Market FAQ
📝 12/20 The Buying Things From A Store FAQ
🏛️ 12/22 The Media Very Rarely Lies
🧠 12/23 Fact Check: Do All Healthy People Have Mystical Experiences?
🧵 12/25 Open Thread 256
🏛️ 12/27 Selection Bias Is A Fact Of Life, Not An Excuse For Rejecting Internet Surveys
🔗 12/28 Links For December 2022
🏛️ 12/29 Sorry, I Still Think I Am Right About The Media Very Rarely Lying
📝 12/30 Take The 2022 ACX Survey!
2023
🧵 1/1 Open Thread 257
🤖 1/2 How Do AIs' Political Opinions Change As They Get Smarter And Better-Trained?
🐉 1/3 Even More Bay Area House Party
🧵 1/8 Open Thread 258
🏆 1/9 Stage 2 Of Prediction Contest
💬 1/11 Highlights From The Comments On The Media Very Rarely Lying
🧠 1/12 Conspiracies of Cognition, Conspiracies Of Emotion
📝 1/13 2023 Subscription Drive + Free Unlocked Posts
🧵 1/15 Open Thread 259
📝 1/18 SSC Survey Results On Schooling Types
🏛️ 1/19 Which Political Victories Cause Backlash?
📝 1/20 ACX Survey Results 2022
🧵 1/22 Open Thread 260
📈 1/23 Who Predicted 2022?
🧠 1/24 You Don't Want A Purely Biological, Apolitical Taxonomy Of Mental Disorders
🤖 1/26 Janus' Simulators
🧵 1/30 Open Thread 261
📈 1/30 Mantic Monday 1/30/2023
😷 1/31 Response To Alexandros Contra Me On Ivermectin
🏆 2/1 Book Review Contest Rules 2023
🤖 2/2 Mostly Skeptical Thoughts On The Chatbot Propaganda Apocalypse
👋 2/4 Berkeley Meetup On Tuesday, Special Guest Daniel Ingram
🧵 2/5 Open Thread 262
🏛️ 2/6 Crowds Are Wise (And One's A Crowd)
🔗 2/8 Links For February 2023
🧵 2/13 Open Thread 263
📈 2/13 Ro-mantic Monday 2/13/23
🏛️ 2/14 Contra Kavanagh On Fideism
🏛️ 2/15 Trying Again On Fideism
💊 2/16 Declining Sperm Count: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
🧵 2/19 Open Thread 264
📈 2/20 Grading My 2018 Predictions For 2023
📚 2/21 Book Review: The Geography Of Madness
🏆 2/23 Announcing Forecasting Impact Mini-Grants
🧵 2/26 Open Thread 265
💬 2/27 Highlights From The Comments On Geography Of Madness
🤖 3/1 OpenAI's "Planning For AGI And Beyond"
🏛️ 3/2 Against Ice Age Civilizations
📈 3/3 Impact Market Mini-Grants Update
🧵 3/5 Open Thread 266
🤖 3/7 Kelly Bets On Civilization
📝 3/7 Issue Two Of Asterisk
🏛️ 3/8 Give Up Seventy Percent Of The Way Through The Hyperstitious Slur Cascade
🔗 3/9 Links For March 2023
🧵 3/12 Open Thread 267
🤖 3/14 Why I am Not (As Much Of) A Doomer (As Some People)
📰 3/14 Classifieds Thread 3/23
💊 3/16 Why Do Transgender People Report Hypermobile Joints?
🧵 3/19 Open Thread 268
🧵 3/26 Open Thread 269
🐉 3/27 Turing Test
🏛️ 3/29 The Government Is Making Telemedicine Hard And Inconvenient Again
🤖 3/29 MR Tries The Safe Uncertainty Fallacy
🧵 4/2 Open Thread 270
💬 4/3 Highlights From The Comments On Telemedicine Regulations
🤖 4/4 Most Technologies Aren't Races
📚 4/6 Book Review: The Arctic Hysterias
🧵 4/9 Open Thread 271
👋 4/10 Spring Meetups Everywhere 2023
📚 4/11 Book Review: From Oversight To Overkill
🧵 4/17 Open Thread 272
💬 4/17 Highlights From The Comments On IRBs
🏛️ 4/18 Contra Kriss On Nerds And Hipsters
🔗 4/19 Links For April 2023
🧵 4/24 Open Thread 273
📈 4/24 Mantic Monday 4/24/23
💬 4/27 Highlights From The Comments On Nerds And Hipsters
🧵 4/30 Open Thread 274
🏛️ 5/1 Change My Mind: Density Increases Local But Decreases Global Prices
😷 5/2 Replication Attempt: Bisexuality And Long COVID
🏛️ 5/3 Raise Your Threshold For Accusing People Of Faking Bisexuality
👋 5/5 Berkeley Meetup This Saturday
🧵 5/8 Open Thread 275
🤖 5/8 Constitutional AI: RLHF On Steroids
💬 5/9 Highlights From The Comments On Housing Density And Prices
💬 5/10 Highlights From The Comments On Long COVID And Bisexuality
🧵 5/14 Open Thread 276
🏛️ 5/15 Galton, Ehrlich, Buck
🏛️ 5/17 Why Is the Academic Job Market So Weird?
🏆 5/19 Your Book Review: Cities And The Wealth Of Nations/The Question Of Separatism
🧵 5/21 Open Thread 277
📈 5/22 Mantic Monday 5/22/23
🏛️ 5/23 Hypergamy: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
🏆 5/26 Your Book Review: Lying for Money
🧵 5/29 Open Thread 278
🧠 5/30 Are Woo Non-Responders Defective?
💊 5/30 All Medications Are Insignificant In The Eyes Of God And Traditional Effect Size Criteria
🔗 5/31 Links For May 2023
🏆 6/2 Your Book Review: Why Machines Will Never Rule the World
🧵 6/5 Open Thread 279
💬 6/5 Highlights From The Comments On The Academic Job Market
🏛️ 6/7 Attempts To Put Statistics In Context, Put Into Context
🏆 6/9 Your Book Review: Man's Search for Meaning
🧵 6/12 Open Thread 280
🧠 6/13 The Canal Papers
👋 6/14 Atlanta Meetup This Sunday
📝 6/15 Your Incentives Are Not The Same As Media Companies'
🏆 6/16 Your Book Review: Njal's Saga
🧵 6/18 Open Thread 281
🤖 6/20 Davidson On Takeoff Speeds
🏆 6/23 Your Book Review: Public Citizens
🧵 6/25 Open Thread 282
📝 6/26 "Through A Glass Darkly" In Asterisk Magazine
📝 6/27 Every Flashing Element On Your Site Alienates And Enrages Users
🧠 6/28 Sure, Whatever, Let's Try Another Contra Caplan On Mental Illness
🏛️ 6/29 Is There An Illusion Of Moral Decline?
🏆 6/30 Your Book Review: Safe Enough?
🧵 7/2 Open Thread 283
🤖 7/3 Tales Of Takeover In CCF-World
🔗 7/5 Links For July 2023
🏆 7/7 Your Book Review: Secret Government
🧵 7/9 Open Thread 284
🏛️ 7/10 Why Match School And Student Rank?
🏛️ 7/13 Contra The Social Model Of Disability
🏆 7/14 Your Book Review: The Educated Mind
🧵 7/16 Open Thread 285
🤖 7/17 Contra The xAI Alignment Plan
👋 7/18 Berkeley Meetup On Sunday, Special Guest Philip Tetlock
📈 7/19 The Extinction Tournament
💬 7/20 Highlights From The Comments On British Economic Decline
🏆 7/21 Your Book Review: The Laws of Trading
🧵 7/23 Open Thread 286
🤖 7/24 We're Not Platonists, We've Just Learned The Bitter Lesson
💬 7/25 Highlights From The Comments On Social Model Of Disability
👋 7/26 New York Meetup On Sunday
🏛️ 7/27 Bad Definitions Of "Democracy" And "Accountability" Shade Into Totalitarianism
🏆 7/28 Your Book Review: On the Marble Cliffs
🧵 7/30 Open Thread 287
📈 7/31 Mantic Monday 7/31/23: Room Temperature Superforecaster
👋 8/1 Meetups Everywhere Fall 2023 - Call For Organizers
📚 8/2 Dictator Book Club: Putin
📚 8/3 More Memorable Passages From "The Man Without A Face"
🏆 8/4 Your Book Review: The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich
🧵 8/6 Open Thread 288
🔗 8/9 Links For August 2023
💬 8/10 Highlights From The Comments On Putin
🏆 8/11 Your Book Review: The Weirdest People in the World
🧵 8/13 Open Thread 289
📝 8/15 In Defense Of Describable Dating Preferences
🐉 8/16 Bride Of Bay Area House Party
🏆 8/18 Your Book Review: The Mind Of A Bee
🧵 8/21 Open Thread 290
🤖 8/21 What Can Fetish Research Tell Us About AI?
🧠 8/22 Critical Periods For Language: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
🧠 8/23 More Thoughts On Critical Windows
💬 8/24 Highlights From The Comments On Dating Preferences
👋 8/25 Meetups Everywhere 2023: Times & Places
🧵 8/27 Open Thread 291
📈 8/28 Mantic Monday 8/28/23
💬 8/29 Highlights From The Comments On Fetishes
🧠 8/31 Here's Why Automaticity Is Real Actually
🏆 9/1 Your Book Review: Zuozhuan
🧵 9/4 Open Thread 292
🗺️ 9/4 Model City Monday 9/4/23: California Dreamin’
🏛️ 9/5 My Presidential Platform
🧠 9/6 Contra Kirkegaard On Evolutionary Definitions Of Mental Illness
🏆 9/8 Vote In The 2023 Book Review Contest
🧵 9/10 Open Thead 293
💬 9/11 Highlights From The Comments On Last Week’s Model Cities Post
📚 9/12 Book Review: Elon Musk
🏆 9/15 Book Review Contest 2023 Winners
🧵 9/17 Open Thread 294
💬 9/18 Highlights From The Comments On Elon Musk
📚 9/19 Book Review: The Alexander Romance
📰 9/21 ACX Classifieds 9/23
🧵 9/25 Open Thread 295
🔗 9/27 Links For September 2023
🧵 10/2 Open Thread 296
💊 10/3 How Are The Gay Younger Brothers Doing?
🤖 10/4 Pause For Thought: The AI Pause Debate
🧵 10/9 Open Thread 297
🏆 10/9 Impact Market Mini-Grants Results
🧵 10/15 Open Thread 298
🧵 10/22 Open Thread 299
📝 10/26 My Left Kidney
🧵 10/29 Open Thread 300
📈 10/30 Mantic Monday 10/30/23
📚 11/1 Dictator Book Club: Chavez
📰 11/3 Quests And Requests
🧵 11/5 Open Thread 301
💬 11/6 Highlights From The Comments On Kidney Donation
🐉 11/7 Hardball Questions For The Next Debate
📰 11/10 Followup: Quests And Requests
🧵 11/12 Open Thread 302
💊 11/14 Does Anaesthesia Prove Ketamine Placebo?
📚 11/16 Book Review: I See Satan Fall Like Lightning
🧵 11/20 Open Thread 303
🧵 11/26 Open Thread 304
🤖 11/27 God Help Us, Let's Try To Understand AI Monosemanticity
🏛️ 11/28 In Continued Defense Of Effective Altruism
🏛️ 11/30 Contra DeBoer On Movement Shell Games
🔗 11/30 Links For November 2023
🧵 12/4 Open Thread 305
📈 12/4 Mantic Monday 12/4/23
💊 12/5 Beyond "Abolish The FDA"
💊 12/7 Defying Cavity: Lantern Bioworks FAQ
🏆 12/8 Apply For An ACX Grant (2024)
🧵 12/11 Open Thread 306
🐉 12/11 Son Of Bride Of Bay Area House Party
🧵 12/17 Open Thread 307
📝 12/22 In The Long Run, We're All Dad
🧵 12/24 Open Thread 308
2024
🧵 1/1 Open Thread 309
🧠 1/2 Singing The Blues
🏛️ 1/3 Does Capitalism Beat Charity?
🧵 1/8 Open Thread 310
🤖 1/8 The Road To Honest AI
💬 1/11 Highlights From The Comments On Capitalism & Charity
🧵 1/14 Open Thread 311
🤖 1/15 AI Sleeper Agents
🏛️ 1/16 Against Learning From Dramatic Events
🔗 1/17 Links For January 2024
📝 1/18 Subscribe Drive 2024 + Free Unlocked Posts
🧵 1/21 Open Thread 312
🤖 1/22 Should The Future Be Human?
💊 1/24 Some Unintuitive Properties Of Polygenetic Disorders
🏛️ 1/24 The Psychopolitics Of Trauma
🧵 1/29 Open Thread 313
📈 1/29 Mantic Monday 1/29/24
🏛️ 1/31 Seems Like Targeting
🧠 1/31 It's Fair To Describe Schizophrenia As Probably Mostly Genetic
🧵 2/4 Open Thread 314
🏛️ 2/7 You Don't Hate Polyamory, You Hate People Who Write Books
💊 2/7 Evolution Explains Polygenic Structure
🏆 2/9 ACX Grants Results 2024
🧵 2/12 Open Thread 315
🤖 2/12 Sam Altman Wants $7 Trillion
🏛️ 2/13 Love And Liberty
🏛️ 2/15 X Fact Check: Does Gender Integration Moderate Politics?
🧵 2/18 Open Thread 316
📈 2/19 Mantic Monday 2/19/24
💬 2/21 Highlights From The Comments On Polyamory
💊 2/22 Does Polygenic Selection Help?
🧵 2/26 Open Thread 317
🏛️ 2/27 Less Utilitarian Than Thou
🔗 2/29 Links For February 2024
🏆 3/1 Book Review Contest Rules 2024
🧵 3/4 Open Thread 318
📈 3/4 Who Predicted 2023?
🏆 3/6 ACX Grants Followup Impact Market
🏛️ 3/7 How Should We Think About Race And "Lived Experience"?
👋 3/8 Spring Meetups Everywhere 2024 - Call For Organizers
🧵 3/11 Open Thread 319
📈 3/11 Mantic Monday 3/11/24
🏛️ 3/13 Versus On Five People Being Killed By A Falling Package Of Foreign Aid
🧠 3/14 In Partial Grudging Defense Of Some Aspects Of Therapy Culture
🧵 3/18 Open Thread 320
🏛️ 3/20 The Mystery Of Internet Survey IQs
🏛️ 3/20 In Continued Defense Of Non-Frequentist Probabilities
🧵 3/25 Open Thread 322
📝 3/26 Take The 2024 ACX Survey
😷 3/28 Practically-A-Book Review: Rootclaim $100,000 Lab Leak Debate
👋 3/29 Spring Meetups Everywhere 2024
🧵 4/1 Open Thread 323
🔗 4/3 Links For April 2024
🧵 4/7 Open Thread 324
💬 4/9 Highlights From The Comments On The Lab Leak Debate
📰 4/11 ACX Classifieds 4/24
🧵 4/15 Open Thread 325
💊 4/16 Updates on Lumina Probiotic
🐉 4/18 Ye Olde Bay Area House Party
📝 4/19 ACX Survey Results 2024
🧵 4/22 Open Thread 326
💊 4/23 Contra Hanson On Medical Effectiveness
🤖 4/25 Desperately Trying To Fathom The Coffeepocalypse Argument
💊 4/25 Survey Results: PMS Symptoms
🧵 4/28 Open Thread 327
💊 4/30 Response to Hanson On Health Care
📚 5/1 Book Review: The Origins Of Woke
🧵 5/6 Open Thread 328
💬 5/7 Highlights From The Comments On "The Origins Of Woke"
🤖 5/8 Asterisk/Zvi on California's AI Bill
🧠 5/8 The Emotional Support Animal Racket
💬 5/9 Highlights From The Comments On Hanson And Health Care
🧵 5/12 Open Thread 329
📈 5/13 Mantic Monday 5/13/24
🏛️ 5/15 Profile: The Far Out Initiative
🏆 5/17 Choose Book Review Finalists 2024
🧵 5/20 Open Thread 330
📚 5/21 Book Review: The Others Within Us
🏛️ 5/23 A Theoretical "Case Against Education"
🧵 5/27 Open Thread 331
🧠 5/28 What Is Going On In IFS?
🔗 5/29 Links For May 2024
🏛️ 5/30 Contra Stone On EA
📝 5/30 Unsong Available In Paperback
🧵 6/3 Open Thread 332
Symbol key:
📝 - blog/meta commentary
🧵 - open threads
💊 - drugs/general medicine
🧠 - neurology/psychiatry/psychology
🏛️ - philosphy/politics/economy
📈 - predictions/prediction markets
🐉 - fiction/flavor
🏆 - book review/other contests
📚 - reviews
😷 - COVID-19
💬 - highlights from the comments
🔗 - links
🗺️ - charter cities
🤖 - AI
👋 - meetups
📰 - classifieds threads